MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0931322c5daa2fb4be8c4a78595fb4bd04d55d9fd97afaa5a916863fb653c3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Under | 53c | 9,271$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,905.61 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 39c | 2,566$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.06 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 2,561$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.64 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 48c | 1,600$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 1,209$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.77 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,157$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.45 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 769.47$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.96 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 47c | 447$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.91 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 47c | 294$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…a119backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 45c | 89.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…3238backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
- Red Sox vs. RaysRed Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.