Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Lamar Cardinals vs. San Diego State Aztecs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0946c2512a3645af96b167f65b5cb6ffa76c50d7f4f0d8ca13f452c9de355573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego State Aztecsof Lamar Cardinals, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Lamar Cardinals | 9c | 43,303$3,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,931.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Lamar Cardinals | 12c | 3,348$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Lamar Cardinals | 8c | 3,004$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…fdd3backed Lamar Cardinals | 6c | 2,384$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Lamar Cardinals | 8c | 1,185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Lamar Cardinals | 7c | 475.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Lamar Cardinals | 4c | 449.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lamar Cardinals | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Lamar Cardinals | 5c | 299.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4058backed Lamar Cardinals | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Lamar Cardinals | 12c | 207.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…e938backed Lamar Cardinals | 7c | 189.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 18cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Lamar Cardinals | 8c | 184.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.