College Football · resolved market
Spread: South Alabama (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x094e4d13a8d3a2b579380670fc98a8250fda4c9be8410f81b8c93df8a1abfbae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof South Alabama, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed South Alabama | 53c | 13,534$7,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,173.04 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas State | 48c | 12,539$6,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,480.22 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…91e4backed Arkansas State | 54c | 12,000$6,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,520 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed South Alabama | 48c | 11,069$5,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,317.17 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked South Alabama | 46c | 10,728$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.74 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State | 50c | 10,431$5,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,212.66 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas State | 48c | 6,600$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…d7a9backed South Alabama | 50c | 5,546$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed South Alabama | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked South Alabama | 50c | 304$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Arkansas State | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Arkansas State | 51c | 196.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arkansas State | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed South Alabama | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed South Alabama | 48c | 99.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked South Alabama | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Arkansas State | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked South Alabama | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked South Alabama | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Arkansas State | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…0f65backed South Alabama | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Alabama (-7.5)this page
- Arkansas State vs. South AlabamaArkansas State won
- O/U 58.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.