Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x098fb307be9f381c72578d9f98bdcbb48ef3983c03591172c3ccf796cf005ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 64c | 698.04$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.99 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 320.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 264.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.17 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 224.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 34c | 211.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 76.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 75.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…2f8dbacked Yes | 67c | 60.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 69c | 58.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 45.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 38c | 43.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 43.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 42.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 73c | 42.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 26c | 42.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 41.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 33.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 33.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…422ebacked Yes | 70c | 31.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 29.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 26.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 47c | 25.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 65c | 24.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 61c | 22.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…52b6backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 17.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.