Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09a2a43ba7589e47a350903fb7c5e5019a36d7522e63c13439e7cbb1e5f35d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 1,249$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 72c | 958.17$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 718.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 699.85$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 7c | 699.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 7c | 502.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 428.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 22c | 410.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 378.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 316.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 288.05$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 56c | 270.38$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 72c | 254.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 238.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 223.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 208.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 22c | 205.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 200.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 156.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 41c | 143.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 117.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 59c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 51c | 96.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 23c | 92.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 87.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 77.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 16c | 76.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 49c | 75.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 70.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 70c | 69.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 41c | 68.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 30c | 67.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 34c | 66.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 51.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 29c | 48.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 41c | 46.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 78c | 36.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 36c | 35.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 30.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes | 50c | 27.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 74c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 74c | 26.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 77c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 75c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…6c7ebacked No | 78c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…f86dbacked No | 75c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 65c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 77c | 18.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed No | 71c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.