Tennis · resolved market
Nottingham 3: Arda Azkara vs Oliver Bonding
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c1628858db1e6821ec7234036f0d21387fcd135c8772d5463884114351f243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arda Azkaraof Arda Azkara, Oliver Bonding
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Oliver Bonding | 41c | 5,251$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.6 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arda Azkara | 51c | 2,122$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.63 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Oliver Bonding | 9c | 1,831$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Oliver Bonding | 43c | 1,079$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.16 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Oliver Bonding | 37c | 995.04$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.15 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arda Azkara | 55c | 957.69$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.34 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Arda Azkara | 36c | 893.24$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.91 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Oliver Bonding | 15c | 890.45$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Arda Azkara | 35c | 857.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.09 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arda Azkara | 36c | 824.71$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.78 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Oliver Bonding | 67c | 814.21$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.17 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Arda Azkara | 33c | 588.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.44 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Arda Azkara | 73c | 587$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…b3a7backed Arda Azkara | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Arda Azkara | 35c | 418.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.32 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arda Azkara | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Oliver Bonding | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Arda Azkara | 38c | 266.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Arda Azkara | 24c | 252.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.9 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Arda Azkara | 44c | 228.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Arda Azkara | 35c | 228.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Arda Azkara | 77c | 202.85$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Oliver Bonding | 61c | 180.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Oliver Bonding | 40c | 178.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Oliver Bonding | 56c | 169.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Oliver Bonding | 16c | 166.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Oliver Bonding | 39c | 164.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Oliver Bonding | 65c | 160.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Arda Azkara | 36c | 108.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Arda Azkara | 34c | 106.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Oliver Bonding | 64c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Oliver Bonding | 65c | 84.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Oliver Bonding | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Arda Azkara | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 447 | 58.8%263 W · 184 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Arda Azkara | 34c | 71.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Oliver Bonding | 61c | 58.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Arda Azkara | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Oliver Bonding | 40c | 53.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Arda Azkara | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Oliver Bonding | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 266 | 40.6%108 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed Oliver Bonding | 56c | 35.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Oliver Bonding | 40c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Oliver Bonding | 64c | 30.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 789 | 57.8%456 W · 333 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Oliver Bonding | 69c | 30.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Arda Azkara | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Oliver Bonding | 71c | 25.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Oliver Bonding | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Oliver Bonding | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 325 | 46.2%150 W · 175 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Oliver Bonding | 67c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 202 | 70.8%143 W · 59 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.