South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e1db1a4bb069ec1aa47cabd6f3c093f2f7cc2a35e8ee074c985f81bd20ad30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 1,819$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.93 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Over | 37c | 1,386$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5777backed Under | 57c | 1,272$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 927.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.58 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 911.72$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.82 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 47c | 910$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.7 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 258.06$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 51c | 161.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a4aabacked Over | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 53c | 138.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 110.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 57c | 59.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Under | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 31c | 35.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 78c | 27.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…01afbacked Over | 72c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5this page
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Club Necaxa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.