South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a996490ee0f6ac2b076cc8b4488efa6f1d9d508cda70f8972b37ef230f8fdb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 40c | 13,089$5,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,853.19 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 60c | 6,710$4,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.97 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 1,445$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 1,176$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.14 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 944$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.32 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 60c | 694.73$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.84 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 60c | 694.73$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.84 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 667.75$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.39 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Over | 57c | 512.74$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 506.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 60c | 485.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.14 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 376.62$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 342.74$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 17c | 296.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 53c | 221.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 185.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 45c | 180.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 45c | 180.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 39c | 178.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Over | 60c | 106.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 62c | 94.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Under | 47c | 88.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 60c | 87.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 46c | 77.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 60c | 62.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 50.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 26c | 49.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 60c | 42.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 60c | 42.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 60c | 39.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…5feebacked Over | 60c | 37.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…fa8ebacked Under | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Over | 60c | 24.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Over | 60c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Under | 50c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked Over | 60c | 17.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 77c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Club Necaxa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.