Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a063efed06e0b856004c0dc0697beff833900d285e09131f330ed085afbf6d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 684.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.43 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 51c | 677.48$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 625$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 41c | 608.31$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.17 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 343.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 260.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 47c | 212.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 29c | 179.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101a…a4d2backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over | 79c | 52.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 50.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2823…eb3dbacked Over | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…c445backed Over | 77c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 14.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.