Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a25ebcd4d66aa9916f29616bed0031173504bd9ab2cc4706f0cdc6c0b307dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 403.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 77c | 282.71$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.03 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 157.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 31c | 96.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 90.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 171 | 31%53 W · 118 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 27c | 74.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 213 | 31.9%68 W · 145 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 34c | 74.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 27c | 68.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 61c | 66.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 68c | 65.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 49.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 25.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 74c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 67c | 22.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 22.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 75c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 51 | 76.5%39 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.