Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a562e2282867eb82431d5b7689182fc340650ccc69f7be2e5f69422130624f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 290.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 230$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 44c | 210.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 132.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 129.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 125.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 120.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 51c | 91.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 88.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 87.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 76.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 76.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 74.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 72.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 65.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 30c | 44.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 39.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc129…feacbacked No | 80c | 35.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 52c | 26.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 69c | 24.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 49c | 21.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…b947backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.