Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a6888b33f8c37b7c8648c28eaa48c8f05155505d0c0c42ce882a5e148929bda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed No | 77c | 7,792$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.21 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 2,925$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 18c | 2,477$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.75 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 18c | 1,992$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.58 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 26c | 1,786$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.36 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,338$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.67 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 1,261$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.94 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,080$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,018$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 24c | 859.25$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 23c | 807.7$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.77 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 23c | 783.25$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 23c | 606.21$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 3c | 393.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 320.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 23c | 304.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 23c | 269$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed No | 76c | 233$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 24c | 191.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fce…8731backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 78c | 103.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…85cabacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…a045backed No | 78c | 44.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…3cf3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…1fb9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…f994backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.