Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5c5f0eea0f2578d545af01929db2bcb781e216f859631dae82a2dd1a2f0c63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 54c | 353.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…67bebacked Yes | 18c | 217.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 211$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 51c | 160.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 98.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3c…9708backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 42c | 88.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…40bebacked No | 62c | 85.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a36…8763backed Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…029abacked Yes | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 67c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed No | 67c | 28.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.