Tennis · resolved market
Marie Bouzkova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a78a3dca015d3ebdbc462a288cf77a2ed84edfee8f451359d3ad8b272cfa1c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 1,067$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 491.55$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.93 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 331.77$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 216.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 121.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 105.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 104.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 95.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 75.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 71.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 58.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…0321backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 47.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…7743backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 42.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marie Bouzkova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs MertensMertens won
- Set 2 Winner: Bouzkova vs MertensMertens won
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5)Mertens won
- Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise MertensElise Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.