Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e505a27ff49aae38471109f86b2d9ab889a28f0a25a8a286534a25631fb122d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Bouzkova, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mertens | 46c | 4,485$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.12 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Bouzkova | 49c | 3,206$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.94 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Bouzkova | 42c | 1,487$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.74 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed Mertens | 41c | 1,203$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.13 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…d5d8backed Bouzkova | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Bouzkova | 60c | 911.56$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Mertens | 53c | 911.52$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.41 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mertens | 53c | 497.54$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.84 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mertens | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…6538backed Bouzkova | 76c | 193.32$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…8e4fbacked Bouzkova | 66c | 153.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bouzkova | 46c | 151.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Mertens | 54c | 120.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 433 | 47.3%205 W · 228 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Bouzkova | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Mertens | 44c | 110.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…f88fbacked Bouzkova | 46c | 109.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…aa0bbacked Mertens | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b250backed Bouzkova | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Bouzkova | 52c | 95.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mertens | 54c | 88.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Bouzkova | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Mertens | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Mertens | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bouzkova | 46c | 64.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…09cebacked Bouzkova | 47c | 63.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Bouzkova | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Mertens | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Mertens | 51c | 43.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Bouzkova | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Mertens | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Mertens | 54c | 27.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mertens | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f90backed Mertens | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Bouzkova | 57c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Mertensthis page
- Marie Bouzkova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 2 Winner: Bouzkova vs MertensMertens won
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5)Mertens won
- Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise MertensElise Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.