South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aac708eb28687628f9c54ee7958d8c549584be19a66bebc9c5f7a607377a588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 34c | 1,415$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.86 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 715.64$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 67c | 622.33$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.99 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 606.36$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 66c | 506.97$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.62 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 66c | 406.97$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.62 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 62c | 406$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 32c | 322.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 252.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 40c | 205$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 33c | 193.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 177.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Over | 66c | 141.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 66c | 115.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 60c | 98.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 93.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 65c | 93.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 34c | 81.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 425 | 62.4%265 W · 160 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…2969backed Under | 37c | 40.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 63c | 39.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5a…da84backed Over | 62c | 39.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…8caabacked Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…4870backed Over | 53c | 21.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5this page
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 0.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.