South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a856b7200f332bb245ce84216ad9f4da7fa1514051780b7291ab232630f6667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 1,626$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.61 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 15c | 1,061$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 62c | 817.75$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.81 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 65c | 772.8$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.48 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Under | 66c | 583.96$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.71 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 570.69$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 37c | 524.51$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 61c | 477.77$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 39c | 442.92$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 39c | 374.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 35c | 346.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 65c | 195.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 60c | 180.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 62c | 160.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Under | 62c | 158.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 61c | 158.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 65c | 152.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 60c | 132.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 425 | 62.4%265 W · 160 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 64c | 122.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 63c | 108.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 33c | 88.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…8cd9backed Over | 35c | 80.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Under | 61c | 79.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Under | 61c | 79.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Under | 62c | 79.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Under | 61c | 79.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed Under | 65c | 39.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under | 62c | 39.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 40c | 33.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Over | 39c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…ab77backed Under | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Under | 60c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Under | 60c | 32.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…24b1backed Under | 67c | 31.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Under | 61c | 31.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366f…f952backed Under | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…ee0bbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Under | 61c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 59c | 21.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked Under | 61c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…3172backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 77c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…2969backed Under | 63c | 16.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5this page
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 0.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.