Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0adb680545b4f5121d69431ad8927a722a444aa98b221c22406c94ca81c6b493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 78c | 316.05$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 53c | 302.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.37 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 279.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 229.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.03 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 61c | 141.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 46c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 113.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 106.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 53c | 91.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 87.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 84.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 82.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 74.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 34c | 74.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 44c | 73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 48c | 72.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 68.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 40c | 66.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 52c | 66.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 38c | 66.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 64c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +14.9wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 40c | 56.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 55c | 56.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 55.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 55.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 48c | 53.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 66c | 53.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 56c | 49.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 32c | 48.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 46c | 46.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked Yes | 34c | 43.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 34c | 43.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 30c | 41.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 76c | 41.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 34.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…8625backed Yes | 53c | 32.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 31.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 61c | 30.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,276 | 47.6%607 W · 669 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…49d7backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 70c | 23.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 22.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 21.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 19.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 64c | 18.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 71c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 74c | 13.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.