Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04978198f331eee00997dbc66f5826df8fb093c1fca46836e19b758533a15ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 67c | 349.67$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.59 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 59c | 161.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 153.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed No | 58c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 125.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 17c | 114.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 102.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 54c | 93.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 42c | 92.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 88.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 81.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 47c | 73.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked Yes | 21c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 28c | 52.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 46.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 44.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 46c | 35.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 31.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 60c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 48c | 22.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…49d7backed Yes | 59c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…f975backed Yes | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 70c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.