Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae2d321f4ca6770495ba88928ed77d062b6d1c87e4602123a1879b0762e9d1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 1,441$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 304.54$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 76c | 217.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 76c | 215.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 163$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked No | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 148.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 135$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked No | 65c | 114.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…4877backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 91.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…e023backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 79.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 21c | 79.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 37c | 68.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef1…c407backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 26c | 49.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 31c | 39.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 36c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 28c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…9ee5backed No | 72c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 44c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 76c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on December 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on December 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.