NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aeb889c155e77b3e33a19f97956ae2ce21995a4c1801fa94850a719c79bc0ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Red Wings, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 34c | 1,101$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.85 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Capitals | 71c | 339.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 65c | 206.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Red Wings | 34c | 158.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Red Wings | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings | 35c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Red Wings | 32c | 84.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Red Wings | 37c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 70c | 73.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 28c | 72.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Wings | 29c | 70.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Red Wings | 32c | 57.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Red Wings | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Capitals | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Capitals | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 75c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Capitals | 68c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. Red WingsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.