Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Astana FK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b46d9a702e860d416c2f2fe31b5a95a4dd533fc35c4ccab29bba06c693b4641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Dinamo Cityof Astana FK, FC Dinamo City
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d3d…6039backed Astana FK | 37c | 2,491$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Dinamo City | 62c | 1,774$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Astana FK | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Dinamo City | 62c | 1,180$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.84 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Dinamo City | 62c | 545.5$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.41 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Astana FK | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +238.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Dinamo City | 60c | 318.9$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Astana FK | 40c | 238.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…f5b4backed Astana FK | 41c | 236.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed FC Dinamo City | 59c | 226$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Astana FK | 40c | 176.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Dinamo City | 59c | 141.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FC Dinamo City | 60c | 136.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Dinamo City | 45c | 134.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Dinamo City | 59c | 121.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…799cbacked Astana FK | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Dinamo City | 60c | 96.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed FC Dinamo City | 59c | 75.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…ed56backed FC Dinamo City | 58c | 51.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Astana FK | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed FC Dinamo City | 44c | 41.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Astana FK | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Astana FK | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed FC Dinamo City | 58c | 35.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked FC Dinamo City | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed FC Dinamo City | 61c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed FC Dinamo City | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked FC Dinamo City | 61c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Astana FK (-1.5)this page
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: Astana FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: Astana FK O/U 1.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: FC Dinamo City O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: FC Dinamo City O/U 2.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 3.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Astana FK (-2.5)FC Dinamo City won
- Spread: FC Dinamo City (-1.5)Astana FK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.