Europa Conference League · resolved market
Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3718c97a0fad73544f8072b3df098f0942e78f03ebb5866ea13353d78aaf8aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 71c | 5,435$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 1,949$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.05 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 1,512$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.7 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 1,458$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.64 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 31c | 675.35$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.36 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 72c | 604$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 36c | 497.36$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 72c | 432.8$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…caaebacked Over | 43c | 360.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked Over | 44c | 351.59$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 66c | 292.11$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 261$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 40c | 247.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.21 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 6c | 245.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 66c | 207.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…ad6fbacked Over | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1159…7c71backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Over | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 43c | 193.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 13c | 186.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 160.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 32c | 124.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 67c | 115.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 31c | 104.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 102.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 42c | 100.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 32c | 75.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 67c | 52.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Under | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 67c | 40.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Under | 60c | 40.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 35c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 40c | 30.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -11.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf61…1e34backed Under | 62c | 25.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…abafbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Under | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…e964backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…35d0backed Over | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…da72backed Under | 70c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…8703backed Under | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 74c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 3.5this page
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: Astana FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: Astana FK O/U 1.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: FC Dinamo City O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: FC Dinamo City O/U 2.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 0.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 4.5Under won
- Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Astana FK (-1.5)FC Dinamo City won
- Spread: Astana FK (-2.5)FC Dinamo City won
- Spread: FC Dinamo City (-1.5)Astana FK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.