CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7845b6de92afe44ce804d790d9cd8750ea051a2678dd425e567b9d29cf5b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Sangal, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,712 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Sangal | 70c | 2,747$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.59 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Sangal | 17c | 2,621$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.47 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 47c | 2,375$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.99 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sangal | 49c | 1,053$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.42 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sangal | 67c | 763.53$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.96 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ursa | 57c | 664.91$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ursa | 41c | 544.18$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.06 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 75c | 404$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Sangal | 77c | 366.88$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.48 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Ursa | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Ursa | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed Ursa | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked Ursa | 28c | 249.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Sangal | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Sangal | 54c | 100.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 151 | 42.4%64 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ursa | 48c | 94.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 42c | 88.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Ursa | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 544 | 39.7%216 W · 328 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Ursa | 27c | 75.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 43c | 68.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…81b5backed Ursa | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Sangal | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Sangal | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Ursa | 32c | 47.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Ursa | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Sangal | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…1bffbacked Ursa | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Sangal | 76c | 38.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…7a95backed Ursa | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | -14.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sangal | 49c | 33.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Sangal | 72c | 32.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Ursa | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 PlayoffsUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.