Olympics · resolved market
Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b793017e0d92439d4419def8d4b7f56b6f910f7069ce446e4172e195198c4b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked No | 3c | 5,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 71c | 772.32$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 30c | 678.58$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.21 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 31c | 225$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Yes | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 30c | 87.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 69c | 72.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…9d1bbacked Yes | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…f2ffbacked Yes | 73c | 50.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…fa78backed No | 31c | 44.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…7c16backed Yes | 70c | 42.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…fbebbacked Yes | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…e450backed Yes | 70c | 37.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…540bbacked No | 30c | 35.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00aa…6b4bbacked No | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e8…e4e6backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hubert Kos (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke?this page
- Will Pieter Coetze (RSA) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke?No won
- Will Roman Mityukov (SUI) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke?No won
- Will Ryan Murphy (USA) win Gold in Men's 200m Backstroke?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.