Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b88c4a5a8ff0445c00bce1092e7800bc3db9c205afee2f3db97184d3a4e1676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Supernovaof Conviction, Supernova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Supernova | 64c | 4,329$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.44 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d2…4186backed Supernova | 58c | 3,719$2,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.98 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Supernova | 64c | 3,702$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.56 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Conviction | 38c | 2,961$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.34 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Conviction | 42c | 2,505$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.15 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Conviction | 36c | 2,158$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.36 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Supernova | 63c | 2,048$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.81 | 594 | 50.2%298 W · 296 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked Conviction | 37c | 1,684$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Conviction | 36c | 1,288$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.77 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Conviction | 36c | 658.58$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.74 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Conviction | 35c | 514.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Conviction | 35c | 425.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Conviction | 35c | 411.86$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Supernova | 63c | 396.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Supernova | 65c | 376.54$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Conviction | 35c | 291.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Conviction | 35c | 247.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Conviction | 38c | 240.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Conviction | 37c | 211.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Conviction | 38c | 211.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Conviction | 38c | 177.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…1ddbbacked Conviction | 35c | 175.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…3f8dbacked Supernova | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Supernova | 61c | 153.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Supernova | 65c | 150.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 461 | 54.9%253 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Conviction | 42c | 137.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Conviction | 37c | 117.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Conviction | 39c | 96.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 242 | 35.5%86 W · 156 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…763dbacked Conviction | 37c | 92.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Supernova | 65c | 89.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Supernova | 63c | 76.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Supernova | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…c15cbacked Conviction | 39c | 58.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…15b2backed Conviction | 36c | 57.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Conviction | 35c | 38.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonSupernova won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 1 WinnerSupernova won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.