Lol · resolved market

LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ae018e9404b4ddefe9c25a0dd629de3c6931eb679c9b9b28f655867a81449e

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Supernovaof Conviction, Supernova
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,339
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,339 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked Supernova	56c	7,489$4,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,314.52	2,004	58.2%1,166 W · 838 L	+86.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Conviction	38c	6,877$2,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,634.13	1,940	48.1%934 W · 1,006 L	+22.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Conviction	44c	2,805$1,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,222.07	1,671	57.9%968 W · 703 L	+70.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Supernova	54c	2,101$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$971.35	321	60.7%195 W · 126 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Conviction	39c	1,499$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.24	974	27.8%271 W · 703 L	-23.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Supernova	40c	1,497$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$898.22	670	56.9%381 W · 289 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Supernova	62c	1,380$855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.18	1,731	44.2%765 W · 966 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Supernova	57c	1,349$767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.7	989	56.8%562 W · 427 L	+24.7wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Conviction	42c	1,215$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.12	507	49.7%252 W · 255 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb08…b630backed Conviction	18c	950.71$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.78	170	32.9%56 W · 114 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Conviction	44c	831.21$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.73	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Conviction	7c	821.31$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.05	456	18.9%86 W · 370 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Supernova	57c	799.12$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.04	1,216	44.4%540 W · 676 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8df…4b48backed Conviction	60c	653.92$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.35	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Conviction	44c	527.13$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.94	2,825	41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L	-14.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Supernova	37c	499.99$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315	1,485	50.1%744 W · 741 L	+67.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked Conviction	60c	422.61$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.51	300	35%105 W · 195 L	-21.3wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Conviction	63c	415.29$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.63	438	39.7%174 W · 264 L	-24.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Conviction	42c	409.32$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.31	103	46.6%48 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Conviction	60c	375.3$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.18	545	29.7%162 W · 383 L	-34.7wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Conviction	31c	350$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	941	44.6%420 W · 521 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Conviction	27c	348.22$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.65	419	45.1%189 W · 230 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Supernova	61c	319.64$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.3	1,663	59.5%990 W · 673 L	+98.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Supernova	62c	309.68$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.52	621	58.8%365 W · 256 L	+32.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Conviction	16c	300$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.96	143	38.5%55 W · 88 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Conviction	58c	211.05$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.41	1,368	37.7%516 W · 852 L	-6.8wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Supernova	57c	200$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86	1,009	49.2%496 W · 513 L	+30.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Supernova	57c	200$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86	744	62.2%463 W · 281 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Conviction	46c	194.82$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.09	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Conviction	63c	193.92$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.02	304	41.8%127 W · 177 L	-8.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Conviction	43c	167.17$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.88	1,372	48.6%667 W · 705 L	+57.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Conviction	58c	167.15$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	1,114	35%390 W · 724 L	+14.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2051…f9f1backed Conviction	22c	155.7$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	492	53.5%263 W · 229 L	-15.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Conviction	56c	152.26$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Conviction	13c	148.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,831	17.1%313 W · 1,518 L	-236.0wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-46%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Supernova	42c	135.33$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.49	203	32%65 W · 138 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e7c…c4c5backed Supernova	56c	125.05$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.45	212	67%142 W · 70 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+11%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Conviction	48c	114.5$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.84	505	49.3%249 W · 256 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc161…bd88backed Conviction	48c	112.2$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.27	738	51.5%380 W · 358 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d7…dacfbacked Supernova	69c	109.77$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.2	289	65.1%188 W · 101 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Conviction	39c	109.11$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	1,539	43.7%673 W · 866 L	-28.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Supernova	68c	107.17$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.49	753	42.5%320 W · 433 L	-14.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Supernova	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	710	57%405 W · 305 L	+41.1wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Supernova	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	486	52.1%253 W · 233 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb09a…7fc7backed Conviction	12c	98.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Conviction	41c	95.95$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	142	43.7%62 W · 80 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Supernova	57c	95.35$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.99	135	56.3%76 W · 59 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c21…f181backed Supernova	59c	87.62$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.92	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Conviction	57c	86.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	349	60.7%212 W · 137 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Conviction	14c	84.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	495	14.3%71 W · 424 L	-70.5wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Supernova	59c	82.66$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.89	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Supernova	57c	82.37$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.81	142	46.5%66 W · 76 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe547…a35abacked Supernova	59c	82.08$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.29	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4f…6e10backed Supernova	63c	75.81$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.42	63	82.5%52 W · 11 L	+11.1wins	+0.18per pick	65cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Conviction	46c	71.6$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.94	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-15.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Supernova	56c	71.36$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	618	49.8%308 W · 310 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked Supernova	51c	68.51$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.57	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.18per pick	54cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6859…2d79backed Supernova	50c	66.53$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.97	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…ed87backed Conviction	43c	53.36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	58	50%29 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf63e…f525backed Supernova	55c	53.07$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.88	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3032…2c71backed Supernova	59c	52.9$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.69	101	50.5%51 W · 50 L	-6.2wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc67b…b3d8backed Supernova	58c	52.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.88	243	59.3%144 W · 99 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Conviction	41c	51.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	183	42.1%77 W · 106 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0a…dda0backed Supernova	53c	50.43$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Conviction	43c	49.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	476	30.7%146 W · 330 L	-13.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8701…2075backed Supernova	55c	44.23$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.9	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Supernova	42c	40.79$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.66	162	54.3%88 W · 74 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Supernova	37c	40$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	139	61.2%85 W · 54 L	+10.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x868f…5da6backed Conviction	42c	39.57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	196	56.6%111 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Supernova	55c	39.3$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.88	261	54.8%143 W · 118 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a41…15b2backed Conviction	48c	39.19$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	138	42.8%59 W · 79 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Conviction	38c	38.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	2,341	40.3%943 W · 1,398 L	-61.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Supernova	49c	35.63$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.18	170	40%68 W · 102 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Supernova	53c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.45	1,643	44.4%730 W · 913 L	-42.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd989…dcbabacked Conviction	43c	33.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	168	63.7%107 W · 61 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Conviction	45c	33.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	337	37.7%127 W · 210 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Conviction	41c	27.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	1,007	47.9%482 W · 525 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d82…9ecdbacked Supernova	72c	27.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.64	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	76cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ed…6584backed Conviction	47c	26.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	32	71.9%23 W · 9 L	+4.0wins	+0.13per pick	59cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa85f…bb16backed Supernova	62c	18.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.98	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)Supernova won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonSupernova won
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 1 WinnerSupernova won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event