Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x934f55979e5f4df198de62f5f3474661423e398fd7ff0006f41757e60a1da408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Supernovaof Conviction, Supernova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Supernova | 39c | 4,847$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.61 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Conviction | 61c | 3,320$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.28 | 2,004 | 58.2%1,166 W · 838 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Supernova | 74c | 2,264$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.38 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…f7e9backed Conviction | 45c | 2,009$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.58 | 899 | 43.4%390 W · 509 L | +22.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed Supernova | 44c | 1,638$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.7 | 974 | 27.8%271 W · 703 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Conviction | 25c | 892.03$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.66 | 320 | 36.9%118 W · 202 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Conviction | 60c | 785.86$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.66 | 989 | 56.8%562 W · 427 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…ce30backed Conviction | 61c | 732.45$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.79 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Supernova | 55c | 710.29$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 321 | 60.7%195 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Conviction | 36c | 552.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 376 | 33.5%126 W · 250 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Conviction | 6c | 401.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Conviction | 61c | 378.36$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 545 | 29.7%162 W · 383 L | -34.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Supernova | 55c | 351.59$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.22 | 759 | 42%319 W · 440 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Supernova | 70c | 318.08$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Supernova | 55c | 257.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 288 | 27.4%79 W · 209 L | -30.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Conviction | 60c | 224.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…75ccbacked Conviction | 37c | 214$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 1,009 | 49.2%496 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…a35abacked Conviction | 53c | 187.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Conviction | 15c | 173.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Conviction | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…5da6backed Conviction | 51c | 144.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d0…f87ebacked Conviction | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 399 | 40.4%161 W · 238 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Conviction | 61c | 114.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 304 | 41.8%127 W · 177 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c21…f181backed Supernova | 60c | 92.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Supernova | 67c | 90.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Supernova | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Supernova | 54c | 75.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Conviction | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…dacfbacked Supernova | 61c | 56.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 289 | 65.1%188 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Conviction | 61c | 47.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Conviction | 56c | 36.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Supernova | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 738 | 51.5%380 W · 358 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Conviction | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked Supernova | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 398 | 32.7%130 W · 268 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…ed87backed Supernova | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Conviction | 60c | 19.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)Supernova won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonSupernova won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.