Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8d424b0e2815fde70834eb8c55ef87a974bd4f4379528bea2e78bfecc504661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Supernovaof Conviction, Supernova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Supernova | 76c | 1,988$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.32 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed Conviction | 68c | 628.56$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.43 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Supernova | 35c | 545.29$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.06 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Supernova | 32c | 499.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Conviction | 19c | 446.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…63f6backed Conviction | 15c | 332.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Conviction | 61c | 318.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked Conviction | 67c | 306.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.68 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Conviction | 22c | 300.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 1,539 | 43.7%673 W · 866 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Conviction | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked Conviction | 47c | 267.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Conviction | 25c | 239.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Supernova | 33c | 235.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.75 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b1…58f5backed Supernova | 70c | 218.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Conviction | 45c | 214.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Conviction | 32c | 209.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1,114 | 35%390 W · 724 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Supernova | 32c | 206$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Supernova | 49c | 205.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Conviction | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Conviction | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 505 | 47.7%241 W · 264 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Supernova | 31c | 185.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Supernova | 42c | 182.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 759 | 42%319 W · 440 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Conviction | 69c | 172.84$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 304 | 41.8%127 W · 177 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…98e1backed Conviction | 67c | 160.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Conviction | 42c | 148$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Conviction | 69c | 141.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…133ebacked Conviction | 21c | 131.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0b…ef0cbacked Supernova | 38c | 126.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 189 | 42.3%80 W · 109 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Supernova | 49c | 124.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 474 | 44.1%209 W · 265 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5e77backed Conviction | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Conviction | 27c | 104.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Supernova | 69c | 102.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 274 | 65.7%180 W · 94 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Supernova | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 177 | 39%69 W · 108 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Supernova | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Supernova | 60c | 98.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Supernova | 35c | 96.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Conviction | 31c | 94.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Conviction | 64c | 74.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Supernova | 65c | 72.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Supernova | 76c | 72.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 441 | 29.5%130 W · 311 L | -45.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Supernova | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Conviction | 25c | 69.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 495 | 14.3%71 W · 424 L | -70.5wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…929abacked Conviction | 27c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 166 | 68.7%114 W · 52 L | +22.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Supernova | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…084abacked Supernova | 75c | 62.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Supernova | 33c | 53.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…0fa8backed Conviction | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed Conviction | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Conviction | 67c | 49.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 197 | 35%69 W · 128 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…1fdcbacked Conviction | 65c | 49.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…1507backed Supernova | 71c | 46.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed Supernova | 33c | 40.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Supernova | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…1843backed Supernova | 38c | 39.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Supernova | 30c | 38.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 247 | 41.3%102 W · 145 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Conviction | 63c | 37.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…1cc4backed Supernova | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 149 | 72.5%108 W · 41 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Supernova | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 151 | 66.2%100 W · 51 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…a2ebbacked Conviction | 65c | 29.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…fad4backed Supernova | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…6e10backed Supernova | 67c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +11.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…6aacbacked Supernova | 39c | 26.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299b…9597backed Supernova | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Supernova | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 110 | 90.9%100 W · 10 L | +16.8wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…75e4backed Conviction | 66c | 15.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Seasonthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)Supernova won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 1 WinnerSupernova won
- LoL: Conviction vs Supernova - Game 2 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.