Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8b822021e7f33f6c476c62310e8d92237de02ec0c01d6b7d997839f574546d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 37c | 607.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.55 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 529.63$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.21 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 29c | 248$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.08 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 29c | 147.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 70c | 117$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 70c | 111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 70c | 93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 73c | 91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 71c | 77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 71c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 69c | 69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 30c | 33.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 61c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 66c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.