Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc6518d790ab4e037015ffa066808683d5a8a16f09d986ba9e22a4a7fd32f03f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 76c | 2,011$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.25 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 1,899$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.56 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 25c | 225$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 25c | 48.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 75c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Over | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Over | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Over | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.