Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9936f5db78ff75ff658d8eeb52a5a22bd6c68d9dedd34f68a732dabd3f433733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 46c | 1,874$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.43 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 55c | 1,432$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.62 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Over | 53c | 754.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 498.54$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.71 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 179$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 49c | 92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 48c | 87.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Over | 50c | 68.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 42.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Over | 52c | 39.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 52c | 23.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.