Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern Wildcats: O/U 152.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb58f4e497b86ff25c2cb680d2de403d047f49a51aefc09b569ce155eaa2d9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,650 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 53c | 4,637$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.08 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 3,726$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.75 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,511$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.94 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,477$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.11 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 1,338$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.32 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 887.97$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.35 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 659.4$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.92 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Over | 52c | 597.92$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Under | 55c | 516.57$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 501$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.52 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 48c | 406.25$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 97.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 70.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 64.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Over | 52c | 61.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 26.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern Wildcats: O/U 152.5this page
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern WildcatsIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.