Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb85327e475097238c28e0bfbb54db3f6140a12a2e72626bf7f03a2f5e2c779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof OG, Team Resilience
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c45…b26bbacked OG | 28c | 722.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Team Resilience | 73c | 483.14$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 192 | 60.4%116 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed OG | 25c | 386.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked OG | 27c | 332.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…111abacked Team Resilience | 74c | 314.79$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Team Resilience | 72c | 294.3$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Resilience | 74c | 245.56$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed OG | 26c | 169.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Team Resilience | 73c | 117.32$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked OG | 27c | 114.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Resilience | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Team Resilience | 74c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Resilience | 70c | 77.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Team Resilience | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 144 | 66%95 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked OG | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Team Resilience | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed Team Resilience | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Team Resilience | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Resilience | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Team Resilience | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…15cbbacked Team Resilience | 75c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG - Game 1 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTeam Resilience won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.