NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf9f54b438a3cd35e280d17eda2d9219161cee8f80080f6e5ba96190122974f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Timberwolves, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Warriors | 60c | 26,666$15,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,696.18 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Timberwolves | 0c | 25,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 57c | 23,338$13,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,035.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 40c | 10,271$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Timberwolves | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Timberwolves | 40c | 2,172$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.8 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Timberwolves | 40c | 1,785$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Timberwolves | 40c | 1,710$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 1,701$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.13 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Timberwolves | 1c | 1,674$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 42c | 1,637$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.18 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 56c | 1,573$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.12 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Timberwolves | 40c | 1,028$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Timberwolves | 42c | 691.62$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.48 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Timberwolves | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Timberwolves | 43c | 278.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Timberwolves | 40c | 243.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Timberwolves | 40c | 227.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Timberwolves | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Timberwolves | 25c | 214.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Timberwolves | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…80cbbacked Timberwolves | 10c | 194.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Warriors | 57c | 174.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…c508backed Timberwolves | 34c | 148.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…3da7backed Warriors | 74c | 138.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Timberwolves | 40c | 124.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Timberwolves | 44c | 114.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Timberwolves | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…7b83backed Warriors | 66c | 97.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Timberwolves | 40c | 76.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Warriors | 52c | 76.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Timberwolves | 44c | 69.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Warriors | 57c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Timberwolves | 35c | 61.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Timberwolves | 43c | 50.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Timberwolves | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Timberwolves | 43c | 38.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Warriors | 58c | 33.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…edacbacked Warriors | 57c | 28.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Warriors won
- Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Warriors vs. TimberwolvesWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.