NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd0c7290685db69d4ea67591fbba802d366a4292cdb23736d68d338e0e76861c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Timberwolves, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Timberwolves | 47c | 26,055$12,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,245.62 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Timberwolves | 0c | 17,047$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 52c | 15,537$8,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,521.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors | 53c | 13,134$6,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,172.98 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Timberwolves | 54c | 9,268$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 47c | 6,232$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.4 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,179$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.34 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 58c | 1,120$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Warriors | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.74 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Timberwolves | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Timberwolves | 46c | 490$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Warriors | 48c | 310.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Warriors | 46c | 260.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Warriors | 50c | 216$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…7680backed Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…80cbbacked Timberwolves | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 54c | 193$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…fccdbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Warriors | 52c | 174.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 115.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Timberwolves | 53c | 95.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Timberwolves | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Warriors | 46c | 61.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Timberwolves | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Timberwolves | 38c | 36.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Timberwolves | 46c | 34.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Timberwolves | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Warriors | 53c | 29.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Warriors | 46c | 29.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Warriors | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…1425backed Timberwolves | 47c | 27.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -8.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Warriors | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Warriors | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Warriors | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Timberwolves | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Warriors | 53c | 19.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Warriors won
- Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Warriors vs. TimberwolvesWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.