Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Hamad Medjedovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c0cf8925e22ec56cdbefc3df9732d3001c396db50d8d5e10f2369887876da17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Altmaier, Medjedovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Altmaier | 57c | 6,689$3,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.26 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Altmaier | 66c | 5,188$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.43 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Medjedovic | 37c | 3,094$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Medjedovic | 48c | 2,053$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.35 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medjedovic | 41c | 1,529$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Medjedovic | 75c | 1,300$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Medjedovic | 35c | 1,062$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.4 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Altmaier | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Altmaier | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Medjedovic | 73c | 735.22$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.71 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Altmaier | 57c | 629.36$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.52 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Altmaier | 26c | 573$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.17 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Medjedovic | 45c | 424.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.53 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Medjedovic | 52c | 384.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Medjedovic | 38c | 339.58$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Medjedovic | 74c | 288$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Medjedovic | 77c | 269.64$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.85 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medjedovic | 58c | 249$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Medjedovic | 73c | 169$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Altmaier | 43c | 163.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Altmaier | 64c | 157.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Medjedovic | 61c | 117.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…60abbacked Altmaier | 27c | 90.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Medjedovic | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5badbacked Medjedovic | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…3906backed Medjedovic | 73c | 22.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.