Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4a7c5b66d15460a52d6e984214ef2cfe4ec150bab04b8763ab5f1f717e053a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,065$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 354.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 3c | 351.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 322.76$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 280.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 250.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 167.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 28c | 163.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 34c | 163.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 6c | 159.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 13c | 122.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2b9abacked Yes | 26c | 117.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 102.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 82.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 75c | 58.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 75c | 51.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 78c | 51.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 75c | 50.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 65c | 41.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 22.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…b550backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf66…584cbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.