NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c54a5586ff025c34af8df3c51866992d2a3760160046d576cdf8e4d67a27a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Hawks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 50c | 854.36$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.93 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 50c | 428.44$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Heat | 49c | 355.41$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.26 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Hawks | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 49c | 258.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks | 51c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Hawks | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…a84dbacked Hawks | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Heat | 49c | 21.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…1468backed Heat | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…b0dcbacked Heat | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…9b33backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15af…c91abacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…3598backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07b…17cebacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…e223backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…362bbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…d11dbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ff…5311backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…322ebacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…295dbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…d2edbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…fb74backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…4dcfbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d87…ff0bbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…6c2dbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…6a4bbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…b6aebacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…9733backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…2a95backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)this page
- Heat vs. HawksHawks won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.