Weather · resolved market
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c6092f064f44e39ef473d95128d1f2199a9eecc2b4e1ed054a83d7cbc9d57d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 745.6$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.17 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…9648backed Yes | 6c | 580.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 75c | 487.14$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 19c | 304.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 74c | 235.94$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 26c | 198.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…86efbacked Yes | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 77c | 175.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…756abacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 122.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed Yes | 11c | 113.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…dfd2backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 24c | 100.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 16c | 84.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 68.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 49.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…988cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed No | 72c | 33.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…6d95backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…86babacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?this page
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.