Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecbfce9ed61dda8b3a66897e9075ce409cb59ebce1b01fe5d0768e94d971034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 50c | 3,128$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.52 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 71c | 713.26$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.6 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 51c | 633$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 37c | 561.46$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.38 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…9648backed Yes | 45c | 460.8$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.56 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 60c | 459.03$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 35c | 353.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked No | 67c | 149.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 41c | 148.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed Yes | 56c | 130.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 38c | 124.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 122.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 35c | 114$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 54c | 104.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 27c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 81.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 46c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 58.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 45c | 47.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 22c | 46.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f13…f926backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed No | 63c | 41.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 40c | 39.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 47c | 29.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 25.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…5e7fbacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?this page
- Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.