Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c6285fadef5e91051fac6145fee0d41ae0df4159c29dcbc42975061593bb8fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 306.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 270.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 149.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 138.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 103.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 100.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 30c | 92.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 67c | 92.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 88.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 85.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 31c | 74.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 24c | 55.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 55.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 39c | 51.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 23c | 47.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed No | 67c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.