Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon WTA: Elise Mertens vs Laura Siegemund
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c651f268012a662fe3cd832913ccf60208fcb96ad8b93961288b910b473ba5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elise Mertensof Elise Mertens, Laura Siegemund
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Laura Siegemund | 10c | 11,506$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.13 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Laura Siegemund | 8c | 2,428$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Laura Siegemund | 26c | 2,423$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.57 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Laura Siegemund | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…141bbacked Laura Siegemund | 8c | 1,462$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Elise Mertens | 74c | 1,453$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.78 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Elise Mertens | 73c | 1,398$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.4 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Laura Siegemund | 12c | 961.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Laura Siegemund | 5c | 811.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Laura Siegemund | 18c | 800$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Laura Siegemund | 22c | 780.96$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Laura Siegemund | 10c | 751.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Laura Siegemund | 9c | 750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Laura Siegemund | 13c | 577$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Laura Siegemund | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Laura Siegemund | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 366 | 21.6%79 W · 287 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Laura Siegemund | 12c | 457.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Laura Siegemund | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Elise Mertens | 74c | 387.63$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Laura Siegemund | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Laura Siegemund | 25c | 356$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…4575backed Elise Mertens | 75c | 348.33$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Elise Mertens | 75c | 299.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Laura Siegemund | 9c | 223.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Laura Siegemund | 27c | 219.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Laura Siegemund | 12c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Laura Siegemund | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Laura Siegemund | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 237 | 42.6%101 W · 136 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Laura Siegemund | 12c | 94.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Elise Mertens | 74c | 93.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Laura Siegemund | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Elise Mertens | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Laura Siegemund | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Laura Siegemund | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Elise Mertens | 74c | 54.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Laura Siegemund | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Elise Mertens | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…d645backed Elise Mertens | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Elise Mertens | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 205 | 70.7%145 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.