Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cea568451c4e56909578b9ba7ca33fc11c1949169b3ef0ecef042ccd04d3687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 1c | 788.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…4a89backed Yes | 16c | 667.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 597.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 533.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 12c | 424.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 413.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 309.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 11c | 295.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 19c | 285.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 11c | 277.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 270.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 257.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 16c | 250.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 231.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 230.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 222$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…8f16backed Yes | 14c | 175.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 162.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 12c | 149.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 8c | 144.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 13c | 135.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…7810backed Yes | 10c | 129.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 10c | 123.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 12c | 117.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 20c | 87.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f7…d9adbacked Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 13c | 82.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…0479backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.