Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc618585af730858978fb52f5e71c777d9a9ac67d2615cfa9f3ac6bd9ce3bda69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,026 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked No | 76c | 629.79$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked Yes | 3c | 622.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 589$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 392.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 314.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 264.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 262.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 249.1$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 231.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 222$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 209.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 203.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 14c | 179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed Yes | 22c | 178.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 30c | 163.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 138.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 137.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 24c | 129.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 21c | 106.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 15c | 95.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 95.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 27c | 92.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 27c | 80.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 34c | 70.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 68.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 21c | 61.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 58.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 23c | 55.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 26c | 49.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…9290backed Yes | 23c | 48.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 46.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 45.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 38c | 41.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 27c | 38.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 40c | 37.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 64c | 32.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 30.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 73c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…be07backed No | 74c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 72c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 78c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 74c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 78c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.