Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe473327901c1105c8e7a21e71e04131aaa8a30dc5a6c251539e72c86d8278aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,624 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed Yes | 2c | 1,360$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 23c | 808.41$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.72 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 399.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 331.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 25c | 244.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 238.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 235.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 222$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 203.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 15c | 175.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked Yes | 15c | 160.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 123.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 117.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 103.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 41c | 97.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 95.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 94.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 32c | 93.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 29c | 87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 86.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 60c | 73.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 66.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 24c | 65.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 64.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 59.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 53c | 58.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 57.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…672ebacked Yes | 45c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 55.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 54.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 49.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 77c | 41.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 38c | 39.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 44c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 33c | 32.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 32.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 34c | 31.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 70c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…0849backed Yes | 41c | 30.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 27.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 48c | 26.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 70c | 26.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 72c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked No | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…0479backed No | 75c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 66c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.