Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Missouri State Bears (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf50818ba9f1e2b27f211f71e1cf7e39705893032bc32fcbcf5a8db49b4bd55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Missouri State Bears, Lindenwood Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lindenwood Lions | 47c | 1,280$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.79 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 178.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 168.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lindenwood Lions | 44c | 165$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 137.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Lindenwood Lions | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Lindenwood Lions | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Lindenwood Lions | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Lindenwood Lions | 50c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Lindenwood Lions | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Lindenwood Lions | 47c | 58.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Missouri State Bears | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Lindenwood Lions | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Missouri State Bears | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Missouri State Bears | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Missouri State Bears | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Lindenwood Lions | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Missouri State Bears | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-2.5)this page
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State BearsMissouri State Bears won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 144.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 145.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-3.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.