Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6763f2eb8883c42e15ad51882d17eef1953d4bd1354511e9c2480dbcda4bd46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Lindenwood Lions, Missouri State Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Lindenwood Lions | 10c | 6,817$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.09 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Missouri State Bears | 60c | 2,982$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.94 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Lindenwood Lions | 40c | 2,502$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Missouri State Bears | 67c | 1,619$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.79 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed Lindenwood Lions | 14c | 1,288$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lindenwood Lions | 39c | 1,277$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.61 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lindenwood Lions | 10c | 1,185$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…4588backed Lindenwood Lions | 7c | 1,041$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Lindenwood Lions | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.1 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Missouri State Bears | 70c | 904.56$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Lindenwood Lions | 37c | 805.84$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…f4d3backed Lindenwood Lions | 28c | 704.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 5c | 699.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Missouri State Bears | 78c | 686.71$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lindenwood Lions | 9c | 537$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Lindenwood Lions | 20c | 514.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +19.3wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri State Bears | 59c | 512.3$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.54 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Missouri State Bears | 57c | 500$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Lindenwood Lions | 10c | 411.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Lindenwood Lions | 17c | 387.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 38c | 372$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Lindenwood Lions | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Lindenwood Lions | 17c | 313.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Lindenwood Lions | 40c | 300.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Lindenwood Lions | 37c | 290$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Lindenwood Lions | 21c | 284.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 114 | 39.5%45 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lindenwood Lions | 42c | 277.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 268.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Lindenwood Lions | 11c | 266.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 192 | 37%71 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Missouri State Bears | 61c | 262$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 257.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lindenwood Lions | 42c | 244.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Missouri State Bears | 57c | 216$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Lindenwood Lions | 6c | 200.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 94 | 12.8%12 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Lindenwood Lions | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lindenwood Lions | 39c | 191.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Missouri State Bears | 78c | 177.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Missouri State Bears | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…94b2backed Lindenwood Lions | 24c | 168.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Lindenwood Lions | 10c | 154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Lindenwood Lions | 27c | 152.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…6560backed Lindenwood Lions | 15c | 152.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Missouri State Bears | 62c | 128.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 120.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lindenwood Lions | 16c | 92.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Missouri State Bears | 57c | 89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Lindenwood Lions | 40c | 80.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 215 | 35.3%76 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Lindenwood Lions | 40c | 73.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Missouri State Bears | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…4861backed Lindenwood Lions | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Lindenwood Lions | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Lindenwood Lions | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Missouri State Bears | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Missouri State Bears | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Lindenwood Lions | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…420ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Missouri State Bears | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…1c47backed Missouri State Bears | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +409%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…8b77backed Missouri State Bears | 61c | 24.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…f9c0backed Missouri State Bears | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Missouri State Bears | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…d994backed Missouri State Bears | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Missouri State Bears | 57c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bearsthis page
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 144.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 145.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-2.5)Missouri State Bears won
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-3.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.