Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Missouri State Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fb7f277b04d9304185a722945b4372a8520997d317dfd4c346e100a12e4c79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Missouri State Bears, Lindenwood Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Missouri State Bears | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lindenwood Lions | 53c | 258.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Lindenwood Lions | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Lindenwood Lions | 49c | 124$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Lindenwood Lions | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Lindenwood Lions | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Lindenwood Lions | 54c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Lindenwood Lions | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Lindenwood Lions | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 58.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Lindenwood Lions | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Lindenwood Lions | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Missouri State Bears | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Lindenwood Lions | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Missouri State Bears | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Missouri State Bears | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Missouri State Bears | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Missouri State Bears | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Missouri State Bears | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Missouri State Bears | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Missouri State Bears | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-3.5)this page
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State BearsMissouri State Bears won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 144.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 145.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-2.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.