Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 144.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94f9d0f21685628b90d9b81adc2bc7f7c6c6257e7ddb89489426409f624c00f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 53c | 257.45$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 243.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 52c | 171.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Under | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 157$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 38c | 143$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 118.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 48c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 48c | 94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 48c | 71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 65.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 51c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 144.5this page
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State BearsMissouri State Bears won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 145.5Under won
- Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-2.5)Missouri State Bears won
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-3.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.